The 2014 outbreak in West Africa is definitely the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the discovery of the virus in 1976. There have been more cases and deaths in this outbreak than all others combined. Ebola, also known as Ebola hemorrhagic fever or Ebola viral disease, is a rare and deadly illness caused by one of the strains of Ebola virus. This viral agent is regarded as a prototype pathogen of viral hemorrhagic fever, with high fatality rates in humans and primates. The natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unknown, although bats seem to be the most likely reservoir.
On March 21 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health announced the outbreak of a disease manifesting with fever, vomiting, severe diarrhea and a high case-fatality rate of 59%. Specimens taken from sick individuals and tested at the Institute Pasteur in Lyon (France) were positive for an Ebola virus.
Having outlined above some of the historical and medical aspects of the disease, let’s scrutinize the economic side of the equation.
There are 16 countries in West Africa and only 3 (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone) are affected by the Ebola virus which is having a big economic impact on the three countries and many others in the region.
Many West African countries have significant numbers of expatriate workers in critical sectors. However, the spread and fear of Ebola has caused a mass movement of foreigners back to their home countries.
The biggest problem is the very weak healthcare infrastructure which does not  provide the expatriate workers with enough confidence to remain in the region. For example in Ghana, where there are no reported cases of the virus, some global businesses asked their non-essential foreign personnel to leave the country.
Naturally, the countries affected by the virus directly are much more vulnerable. Particularly Chinese are scared who invested heavily in the continent during the past few years. For example, in Liberia, a World Bank contract for the construction of a road between Liberia and Guinea, has been suspended. The Chinese contractor, China Henan International Cooperation Group, pulled out its workers.
On the sector level across West Africa trade, tourism and agriculture are most likely to be affected.
The overall economic impact of Ebola is huge. The IMF has now reduced its growth projections for the region to 5% from 5.5%. The World Bank also shares this outlook, revising growth estimates down for the 3 countries. The disease, if not successfully contained, could cost the West African economy $32bn in 2015.
The World Bank expects that GDP growth in Sierra Leone will only be 8.3% (down from 11.3%), with agriculture among the worst affected sectors, and also causing a slow down in mining operations. Guinea’s growth estimate is down to 2.4% from 4.5%, the worst hit sector is again agriculture. And Liberia, one of the smallest economies in the world, has had its growth projections reduced to 2.5% from 5.9% with projections of zero or negative growth in 2015 – with mining and agriculture the worst hit sectors in the country.
Overall, the World Bank estimates that the Liberian economy has declined by $113m as a result of the crisis; Sierra Leone by $95m; and Guinea by $120m.
Courtesy of Enase Okonedo, Dean of Lagos Business School at Lagos Business School
Source: World Bank, IMF, Bloomberg, The Conversation, Medical News
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