EMerging Equity
U.S.
Weekly EM/FM Risk Outlook: 9/21 – 9/27
By Brian Daigle China’s President Xi Jinping makes first official visit to the United States. South American leaders meet amid tensions between UNASUR nations. EU officials meet to discuss the ongoing migrant crisis. Pope Francis speaks to the U.S. Congress. Interest rate decisions in major developing markets. All this in the Weekly Risk Outlook. President Xi Pays First Official Visit … Continue reading
De-Dollarization: Russia Wants Firms To Default On Western Loans, Ban Firms From Using FX/FX Loans
By Pepe Escobar Let’s start with some classic Russian politics. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is drawing up Russia’s economic strategy for 2016, including the government budget. Siluanov – essentially a liberal, in favor of foreign investment – will present his proposals to the Kremlin by the end of this month. So far, nothing spectacular. But then, … Continue reading
Mark Mobius: A Fed Move Could Be Good News For Emerging Markets
By Mark Mobius, Templeton Emerging Markets Group After months (if not years) of speculation and debate, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has left the financial markets in a holding pattern once again, deciding to keep its benchmark short-term interest rate steady at near zero. In our view as investors in emerging markets, this isn’t necessarily positive news, … Continue reading
Indonesia’s Currency Tumbles For 10th Straight Week Following Fed, Worst In 15 Years
As the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold following the FOMC decision on Thursday, uncertainty on this decision had thus driven Indonesia’s currency into a 10th week of declines, which is its longest losing streak since 2000. U.S. Fed Chief Janet Yellen said that most policy makers want to hike interest rates this year, however … Continue reading
Has The U.S. Fed Lost Its Mojo?
By Mike Whitney After 6 full years of zero rates and extreme pump-priming that flushed more than $10 trillion dollars into global markets, the Federal Reserve decided that even the slightest uptick in its benchmark Fed Funds rate would trigger enough destructive volatility in emerging markets that it would be better to postpone the rate hike … Continue reading
Fiscal Tightening And Economic Growth: Exploring Cross-Country Correlations
By Paolo Mauro, Jan Zilinsky The public narrative on austerity is shaped by simple scatter plots purporting to portray the large negative impact of fiscal ‘austerity’ on economic growth. This column argues that, while recognising concerns about causality, economists should systematically explore correlations and multiple regressions, and test their robustness. The results reveal a mixed picture, … Continue reading
George Magnus: Fed Holds Rates, For Now — But For How Long?
By George Magnus Spurring frenetic speculation in the days before, the U.S. Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at Thursday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington. Markets still expect a rise in policy rates before the end of the year, which would herald a restrained tightening cycle through to the end … Continue reading
OPEC, Russia And The Emerging New World Order
By F. William Engdahl By the day it’s becoming clearer that what I have recently been saying in my writings is coming to be. The OPEC oil-producing states of the Middle East, including Iran, through the skillful mediation of Russia, are carefully laying the foundations for a truly new world order. The first step in testing … Continue reading
Two Unknowns: The Fed’s Action, And The Market’s Reaction
By Alex Christensen The Fed’s Thursday policy decision is clouded by data that justifies both hawkish and dovish stances, leaving uncertainty over whether rates will rise this month. Either way, the response from markets may be more muted than you would think. This week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will no doubt be the … Continue reading
The Russia, China Alliance: What Does “The Dragonbear” Aim To Achieve In Global Affairs?
By Velina Tchakarova Much has been written and speculated over an emerging strategic alliance between Russia and China, which I gave the name ‘the Dragonbear’ in the geopolitics of the 21st century. Interpretations of the context of deepening bilateral relations range from very sceptic to very optimistic prognoses for the future. But what does the Dragonbear really aim to … Continue reading
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